If you want long-term profits, you need to know how to find and bet on value, which is when the chances of a wager paying off are higher than what’s indicated by its odds. That means ignoring your emotions and using disciplined money management strategies.
To find the true probability that a team or player will win, use odds comparison sites or prematch statistics packs.
How to Find It
Finding value bets is essential if you want to build a winning sports betting strategy — especially if you’re just starting out. But it takes more than just a few bets here and there. To increase your chances of success, use specialist value betting software with proven results. Make sure it comes with bankroll management tools and has a system for calculating the real odds of an event happening.
One way to do this involves comparing the true probability of an event happening (the one you’ve calculated) with the odds offered by bookmakers or exchanges. You can also try:
- Using pre-match statistics packages
- Checking news updates
- Comparing odds offered by different bookmakers
Remember: You won’t win every bet, but making smart picks based on value bets will pay off in the long run. To hedge your risk while still getting consistent results, limit your stake size as much as possible.
How to Identify Underdogs
Successful gamblers have two things going for them: They know how to pick winners, and they know that “underdog” doesn’t mean “loser.” In fact, underdogs can often be valuable because their plus (+) odds outweigh their chance of victory. Conversely, favorites tend not to pay off as well because their minus (-) odds are usually overpriced.
That said, not all underdogs are worth betting on; some are simply bad teams playing even worse ones. So before placing any wagers:
- Research those strengths/weaknesses against opponents’
- Check injuries, recent performance, match importance
- Use tools to compare odds and calculate true probability
How to Identify Value Lines
Spotting value bets takes a deep understanding of a sport. If you’re already an expert on one particular game, the next step is finding and perfecting your predictive model — whether it’s as simple as a spreadsheet with player stats or as complex as a model that considers subtle variables.
Value bets exist when you think the chances of your team winning are higher than what the bookmakers say. To find out for sure:
- Calculate the odds: Multiply the chance of your team winning by its odds.
- Find expected value: Subtract 1 from this figure.
- Is it positive? If so, then you’ve found value.
One final note: The amount of profit available from a bet depends largely on how much better than your opponent you are at predicting events. To improve accuracy, use systems that allow you to make individual percentage predictions for any event.
Value betting refers to the strategy of choosing bets that have a higher likelihood of winning than what’s indicated by their odds. This method won’t deliver certain success or instant profit, but it can definitely boost your overall win percentage and help you establish streaks of wins with time. To succeed at value betting, you must be exact in your calculations and track each selection on a spreadsheet.
To spot value bets, compare sportsbook odds against your own evaluation of true probability. Use a tool like OddsChecker for this job; take into account factors such as team news, injuries, and historical data when conducting this analysis. Additionally, Hero Hotline is available if you need assistance comparing odds across different sportsbooks. There’s also surebets which guarantee profits by placing bets simultaneously; both methods are useful in successful betting strategies but cannot replace each other entirely.
